PS4 (leaked pic of the new joypad)

[Ekona]

PS1 came out in 1995 here true, but the PS2 wasn't released until 2000 so we'd still be on the PS1 if you apply a weird kind of logic to it like I did because i was too tired to do the maths properly

[matt_mr2t]

No, we'd be a few years into the PS2 actually....

IF there is a BIG leap then fair play. If it's not that much difference then I dont see the point.

[JohnnyC]

If any of you know what "Cloud Computing" is then you will know that this next generation of consoles could very well be the last.

Why upgrade your hardware every 3 years when you can pay a small subscription and have your game console/s, PC and even full company networks (Servers and Clients) hosted on a giant massively powerful server/machine/mega console which then send your session display to a tiny little box under your tv to convert the data into a usable image. if you want Office 2012, Wii 2, new Gaming PC or a 50 user server based network you just add it to your subscription and away you go.

I was thinking about that recently (and no, I hadn't read about it anyway, honest).
Two things got me to thinking it, firstly consoles being replaced every few years, and secondly what a pain it is to write networked games.

The idea of one big supercomputer controlling the lot and just piping out the display for everyone just makes everything easier.

As you say, broadband is the hold up currently.

I was reckoning that the PS5 or PS6 will be a mainframe computer

PS4 definitely will be a console, I think the only reason it'd have an optical drive in though would be to play peoples DVD/Blurays.

[matt_mr2t]

Your both forgetting 1 major thing here.

££££

Why give someone a cheap option like that when they can charge £300 - £400 and beyond for a console.

Then £30-£50 a time for game (that costs a couple of quid to produce)

They'd lose billions.

[JohnnyC]

Your both forgetting 1 major thing here.

££££

Why give someone a cheap option like that when they can charge £300 - £400 and beyond for a console.

Then £30-£50 a time for game (that costs a couple of quid to produce)

They'd lose billions.

Firstly, haven't you heard of credit crunch?
(Most) People aren't willing to spend silly money on consoles. The high cost of the PS3 nearly cost Sony it's existence.
And companies don't usually make money on console hardware anyway (I'd guess that Microsoft have lost billions due to the shear number of replacements of it's shoddy hardware ).

The £30-£50 for a game these days is pretty cheap, just because the manufacture of the disc costs pennies, how many years did it take how many people to make?

Digital distribution will be the only way to buy games on the next consoles I reckon (and will help keep costs down). As I said, they'll still need optical drives just to play peoples movies (which eventually, will be stored locally on the consoles HDD, or even further in the future will be stored on a server somewhere).

The downside to all this digital distribution is, unfortunately, shops will close, less need to truck drivers to deliver those goods.

[Azz]

Your both forgetting 1 major thing here.

££££

Why give someone a cheap option like that when they can charge £300 - £400 and beyond for a console.

Then £30-£50 a time for game (that costs a couple of quid to produce)

They'd lose billions.

Its you who has this the wrong way round,

Hardware is going to be a thing of the past, hosted and DLC is the way its going to go. The government are all for this as its a "green thing" with everyone not having a PC, XBOX, PS3, and DVD players in there homes sucking up power while being used and eliminating the CO2 emmissions when they were created and top this off with no waste, you must be crazy if you think hardware is going to be a part of the future!.

With business you wont have 20 servers and 600+ PC's you will just have thin clients instead which will save millions in power/cooling, procurement, support staff etc etc, we have customers lined up to use cloud computing, we recently had a full expo about it for our top 1000 customers. like it or not its going to happen.

look at IBM, they have pulled right out of the hardware market (Except for mainframes) and sold the lot to Lenovo they are focusing on software.

The money will be in the subscription, instead of charging £300 for the console every 5 years when you can spend £10 a month and get your console hosted, which would equate to £600 for the console over the same refresh time period, so they would generate more margin and they would not have to make millions of "real" units which cost money to make.

As its only a "Low" amount every month its more accessible to everyone, if I could have all 3 consoles for £20 a month then sign me up now!!!. There will be no need to upgrade anything as its done for you so you just get one with it.

This will get more people using the product as its an easy "opt in" and if the product lives up to the users expectation then they will get a sustained revenue stream when they stay on.

This is "On Demand" thinking and is gunna change everything. I had a customer rubbing his hands together in a meeting when he saw how much he would save just by getting rid of the IS department (£1.8M over 5 years) then could this with the power, cooling, re-fresh, downtime, etc etc and he said there is no viable reason not to do this.

I could go on about this all day, as I have a presentation to do on Monday which focuses on this.

[matt_mr2t]

Don't get me wrong. It's a brill idea. Just think somehow it would end up going rear shaped.

[JohnnyC]

Don't get me wrong. It's a brill idea. Just think somehow it would end up going rear shaped.

Well yes, when the Microsoft Xbox 1200 mainframe gets RROD

[Azz]

I know what your saying, before I get the inside scoop on it i thought the same and if the broadband is not brought up to amazing standards then it wont happen as thats the limiting factor in all of this.

With the way the world is going this should be a scary issue as well, lets not forget that. when this goes ahead, only data centers will be getting hardware not the end user so people who make DVD players, Servers, Consoles, or anything which can be hosted are going to have very little to do. Watch all the CD/DVD factories in the next 3 years.

Instead of a server manufacture making millions of good servers, instead they will make 1000's of Ultra powerful ones to ship to data centers so they will still get the revenues for the performance aspect they build in but they wont need all the staff making them! how deep this will go??? who knows.

[Azz]

I have just got photoshop on my Mac and couldent resist this one

[matt_mr2t]

And if their server goes down how many millions of people lose out till it's fixed? At least with your own hard ware and it fails it's limited to you.

[Azz]

No, they will run clusters in the data centre and then business continuity to other data centers, even if one or two got bombed (they are bomb proof thought) you would not have more than 30 seconds down time!

Its been thought of trust me.

If you have your own it will cost you a LOT in down time, I had a customer who's server went down because he did NOT follow my advice, I used a tool i created to estimate the cost if the server went down and I came to a figure of £10,000 for 3 days, 5 months later he called me as it went down and he asked me what the figure was, and told me I was about £150 out!! he then bought the solution I quoted him in the first place.

Having your own kit can be a lot more dangerous.

[JohnnyC]

and if the broadband is not brought up to amazing standards then it wont happen as thats the limiting factor in all of this.

Even if broadband was up to scratch, it still wouldn't happen straight away.
Peoples perception needs to change. They still want something they can hold in their hand for their £40.
Fortunately the PS3/Xbox360 are the turning point
It's still in it's infancy, with only a few 'AAA' titles available as digital download, but it'll get better in the current consoles lifetime.

they wont need all the staff making them! how deep this will go??? who knows.

The next 10/20 years is going to be a very scary time

[Azz]

Even if broadband was up to scratch, it still wouldn't happen straight away.
Peoples perception needs to change. They still want something they can hold in their hand for their £40.
Fortunately the PS3/Xbox360 are the turning point
It's still in it's infancy, with only a few 'AAA' titles available as digital download, but it'll get better in the current consoles lifetime.

Not mainestream but it is happening, as long as your on fibre and have a very good SLA you can run it. But the customers we have taking it onboard now have two buildings each with their own BB and then running a site to site VPN between the two with a dedicated line so they have a failover plan in place. Obviously not everyone can do this but the ones that can, are.

the only thing stopping large business is the broadband downtime risk, as this countries BB is just not up to it ATM.

The next 10/20 years is going to be a very scary time

Its is a scary time but it will take a while to adopt and as long as you align yourself to a market that will still be here then you should head down that route.

IT salesmen will stray from selling hardware and instead up-sell subscriptions to the service, so there will still be a demand but in a different light.

You just have to keep ahead of the game I suppose

[Andy Jones]

With the way the world is going this should be a scary issue as well, lets not forget that. when this goes ahead, only data centers will be getting hardware not the end user so people who make DVD players, Servers, Consoles, or anything which can be hosted are going to have very little to do. Watch all the CD/DVD factories in the next 3 years.

I've read an article from Sony hoping that 2010 onwards they want to ditch games on BluRay and have everything downloadable.

Unlikely to happen? as i'm sure there's still a chunky percentage of owners who aren't online who will be not best pleased.

But all the high street based stores were rather furious at their way forward saying it could cripple them

Scary times indeed, If the UK does ever catch up with the rest of the world when it comes to high speed internet connections.

[Azz]

Agreed, shops and such like may be obsolete overnight (Well sort of lol)

Its evolution and we have to keep up, though shops wont sell hardware they will sell subscription or other "Bolt-On's" to the service.

Its not going to happen yet and in the next 3 to 4 years only 1% if that will be able to adopt the new technology, so don't exact anything for the next 7 or 8 years to change much for us. The cogs are turning but how fast?

Im looking forward to it, as its exactly my line of work, and somthing I think I will be good at. If not there is always Male Escorting